Truthfully, were it not for my dogged belief in Nurmagomedov, I’d be nervous for him. Nitpick Mario Bautista’s eight-fight win streak all you want, the man finds a way to win fights. That sounds simplistic, but when we’re talking about the often finicky judges’ scorecards, that’s an actual skill. An art, even. Just as importantly, Bautista makes his opponents look bad. He has a gift for forcing his opponents to take the path of most resistance and while that can lead to some ugly decisions, they’re decisions that frequently go in Bautista’s favor. Dana White has challenged Nurmagomedov to put on a show if he wants another title shot and I’m not even sure that’s possible against Bautista. Best case scenario, Nurmagomedov gets to display some of his high-level striking, but also focuses on taking Bautista down early and often. Bautista hasn’t dealt with a wrestler of Nurmagomedov’s prowess… ever? And I don’t see him stopping takedowns if that’s the focus of Nurmagomedov’s game plan.

Almeida’s dreary five-round win over Derrick Lewis and subsequent letdown loss to Curtis Blaydes did major—but not irreparable!—damage to his contender case, but he’s bounced back nicely doing what he does best: taking people down and finishing them fast. His past two wins over Serghei Spivac and Alexandr Romanov both ended in the first round. Alexander Volkov is several notches above that level of opposition. He did enough to beat Gane and arguably should be in Saturday’s main event, but instead he’s playing gatekeeper to the top 5 against one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. That’s nothing new for the towering Volkov, who has spoiled many a contenders rise to the top.

Based on his majestic mane alone, it’s tempting to pick Volkov. You can see him replicating what Blaydes did to beat Almeida, stuffing the Brazilian’s signature takedown against the fence and battering him with elbows. But Volkov isn’t Blaydes when it comes to takedown defense and even Blaydes was put on his back and at first before finding the win in Round 2. If Volkov ends up in the same kind of trouble, he’s going to have trouble recovering. I have concerns about Almeida’s cardio as he’s rarely fought past the first round and the one time he did in the UFC, it was against Lewis in a bout where Almeida was in complete control for 25 minutes. Volkov has so much more experience, that could be the difference in the final frame.